Why the iPad in not a Kindle killer
by Scott Jacobson, written for a guest post on TechFlash
First, I’ll apologize for using a list format for this blog post. It is an obvious attempt to cover up my inadequacies as a writer…but those will become abundantly clear momentarily. Second, let me disclaim that mine is a household with two Kindles, four iPhones/iPod Touches, and two iMacs.
And I am a shareholder in both Amazon and Apple. And I worked on the launch of the original Kindle at Amazon. And I plan to buy an iPad. So I’m all sorts of biased. All of that said, here are a few reasons I don’t think iPad is a Kindle killer.
1. Kindle is designed for hard-core readers.
For those of us who like to carry books wherever we go, reading on the bus, on airplanes, on the beach, wherever…Kindle is a great reading device. Sure, it has its limitations. But for people who like to read mass-market stuff (fiction, biographies, history, etc.), the fact that it’s not color and the page turns are not instantaneous isn’t that big of a deal.
It is really good at what it does, and it doesn’t need to do a whole lot more. There is a segment of the market (probably millions, maybe tens of millions, but not hundreds of millions) that will prefer a less-expensive device that does one thing really well. And that segment will continue to choose Kindle.
2. Kindle is not just ‘iPod for books.’
Amazon is not dependent on a completely closed loop system (like iPod/iTunes) to be successful. I can buy Kindle books on Amazon.com and then read them on my Amazon Kindle, my Dell laptop, and my Apple iPhone. Amazon will continue to make Kindle part of the reading experience on other people’s hardware because it knows that’s it’s best and only chance of winning.
Who knows, maybe someday Amazon will let other hardware makers build their own e-book readers with ‘Kindle Inside’. I am a fan of Kindle the device, but as an Amazon shareholder, I am happy that Amazon’s success in the e-book space is not solely dependent on the success of its hardware.
3. iPad is expensive (comparing apples-to-apples, or perhaps apples-to-amazons).
Kindle’s 3G connection is free. Well, actually, it’s bundled into the cost of the books you buy on Kindle. A 3G iPad will run you $130 more than the $499 base price, and its data connection will cost you between $180 and $360 per year. To be fair, iPad’s data plan can and will be used for a lot more than downloading books. And you can buy a WiFi version of iPad and avoid the $130 + $180-360 per year. But then you lose one of the features that makes the Kindle experience magical: the ability to download any book in the store, anywhere, in a couple of seconds. In an apples-to-apples cost comparison, Kindle is $259 ($489 for the DX), iPad is $629 + $180 per year.
4. Personalization/Recommendations.
Almost every book I’ve purchased over the past seven or eight years I bought on Amazon. Because of that, Amazon is pretty darn good at recommending books that it thinks I might like. iTunes has held my entire music collection over a similar timeframe, and yet, its music recommendations still suck.
Amazon is better at making personalized recommendations, and it has a much longer history for books I own to inform its suggestions. It’s hard to put a value on that, but it’s real. It will be interesting to see how the iBookstore does here.
5. Amazon can’t afford to lose.
Amazon doesn’t report the revenue from books, but it’s safe to assume that books remain a very significant part of its business. While the transition from physical to digital will take far longer for books than it has for music, Amazon can’t afford to allow Apple to dominate the market for e-books the way it dominates the market for MP3s. Amazon is in this fight for the long-run, and as Jeff is known to say, ‘it’s still day one’. While I’m sure it’s no surprise to Amazon that Apple is entering the e-book market, rest assured Amazon is now doubling down on its investment.
Make no mistake.
Apple is going to be a major player in the e-book market. They will extend the iBookstore to iPhone and iTunes, and they will sync the last page read across all of your devices (just like Kindle). But iPad is not the death knell for Kindle. It is a shot across the bow. And Amazon needs to step up its game. The nice thing about competition is that it fosters innovation. And we the consumers will be the beneficiaries.
January 30th, 2010 at 7:46 pm
[...] A 3G iPad will run you $130 more than the $499 base price, and its data connection will cost you between $180 and $360 per year. To be fair, iPad’s data plan can and will be used for a lot more than downloading books. …This Blog [...]
February 11th, 2010 at 7:47 am
>>Look for Cheap iPad…
I saw this really great post today….
March 19th, 2010 at 11:01 am
Good post Scott. I agree with most of the points from device perspective. However, it will be interesting how the relationship with content owners plays out. With the traditional paper book model, I think retailers exterted power on publishers on pricing because access to that channel was extermely critical and publishers couldn’t afford to hold inventory. So they gave retailers flexibility in setting the prices. However, in the digital books, publishers don’t have inventory holding or variable publishing costs. As the paper publishing business declines, publishers would attempt to retain more power in setting terms favorable to them. We can see that in other types of digitial contents like music and movies. Netflix agreed to delay rent new movies from Warners in order to get access to more streaming contents.
In my opinion, the availability of content would be one of the key factors in which device win. The player which has moat in hardware and doesn’t depend on marging from the content would be better positioned to win the market. I am not sure how much Amazon makes from the Kindle hardware, but I assume Apple would have significant margin on iPad.